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The uneased tensions in trade could dampen market sentiment in the Yuan. The July Retail Sales and Industrial Production both dropped from the last month and below expectations, hinting weak consumption and production. In addition, Fixed Assets Investment , which is considered to expand at around the same rate of GDP, set a new record-low of 5.
Besides the domestic difficulties, the contagion of high volatility in emerging-market currencies seen recently has the Yuan at risk as well. A Tale of Two Currencies: Hong Kong Dollar and Chinese Yuan. Fed began to increase rate in late March, the pressure on the Hong Kong Dollar has become intensified. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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Results achieved on the demo account are hypothetical and no representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve actual profits or losses similar to those achieved in the demo account. Conditions in the demo account cannot always reasonably reflect all of the market conditions that may affect pricing and execution in a live trading environment. Fundamental analysis, polices, China. Please enter valid email. Please fill out this field. Please Select Please select a country.
Yes No Please fill out this field. For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy website. Or, read more articles on DailyFX. You are subscribed to Renee Mu. An error occurred submitting your form. Please try again later. China hereinafter referred to as China took over control of Hong Kong from the British government following more than a century of rule.
This authority change over the past two hundred years led to a unique economic and financial situation between Hong Kong and mainland China - including monetary policy and exchange rate disparities. Both were established during the British ruling period.
The foreign exchange rate regimes for both currencies have changed over time. The Chinese Yuan was created in when the country was set up. In , the two exchange rates were unified and the Chinese Yuan was set to a peg with the US Dollar.
After the global financial crisis, the Yuan was pegged to the US Dollar again in an effort to stabilize the economy. On August 11, , the Central Bank introduced additional reforms on the Yuan and returned the currency to a basket of currencies.
Before , despite of the divergence between the two exchange rates systems, the HK Dollar was not affected much by the Chinese Yuan as the latter was mostly used within mainland China. Over the next 10 years, both currencies were pegged to the US Dollar; thus the link between the two was stable.
However, after the Chinese Yuan was de-pegged against the US Dollar last August, the link between the two systems has changed fundamentally. At this time, the Hong Kong Dollar — operating under a separate system from the Yuan — may initially enjoy a benefit of capital inflows that bolsters the HKD. When the capital flowed out from mainland China, they may first come to Hong Kong due to the financial links between the countries.
There are a few advantages for mainlanders investing in Hong Kong: They can use a wait-and-see strategy and may reinvest back to the mainland market if conditions improve. However, in January conditions further changed. Yet, many investors no longer consider Hong Kong as a safe haven as they once had given increasing financial influence by mainland China.
During the NPC meeting in fact, issues related to the financial markets were directly in the spotlight. The securities regulator said that they will support the equity market for quite a long time before it regains stability.
Thus, the uncertainty in mainland will continue to weigh on Hong Kong markets and its currency. More importantly, Hong Kong faces a fundamental problem if it retains a linked exchange rate regime. At the NPC meeting, China lowered its growth target in to 6. In specific, Chinese tourist arrivals to Hong Kong — which is considered a main driver to Hong Kong retail and real estate sectors — have declined significantly over the past months.
P roperty prices in Hong Kong dropped by 9. Also, as the US Fed is likely to raise interest rates again in and then send the US Dollar higher, the linked Hong Kong Dollar would become more expensive than un-pegged currencies including the Chinese Yuan. Hong Kong was once the most popular offshore market for mainlanders to issue Yuan-denominated bonds, also called dim-sum bonds.
In , the volume of this debt issued in H ong Kong hit a historical high of DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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