Système de trading simple
Comme tous les indicateurs, la MACD est meilleur couplé avec des tendances identifiées ou des marchés en range.
My Simple Trading System
The simple rule is - if you lost money on the market that means somebody put this money into the pocket as profit and if you make a profitable trade then somebody lost this money. As you may see there is no simple system in the meaning of the trading system that is very easy to learn and very easy to use. Yet, the simple trading system could be built, however the process of the development could be very complex. The simpler the trading system looks at the end, the more complex and more difficult was the process of developing this system.
There are a lot of simple trading indicators and many of them work. Yet, it's not an easy process to start using them. Even if the trading system looks very simple at the end, most likely there are many years of research, testing and adjusting behind this system. You may find several trading systems already developed which look simple.
Even if using technical indicators looks simple, it's not a final system yet. Many traders realize that this is a much more complex process when it comes to utilizing this trading system into the real market. A trader faces a lot of questions that need to be answered: We also reduce the drawdown by a lot. I would guess we are eliminating a number of losing trades by only taking trades during a bull market.
Another way to divide the market is through volatility. Markets go through periods of rising volatility and falling volatility. In general, market volatility rises and peeks as the market falls and makes new lows. Some systems do well during these high volatility times while others do better during more quiet times. How are we going to measure volatility?
Thus, we often see the VIX making new highs as the market is making new lows. Trade will only be opened when the current VIX is below the moving average. This should help the system by only taking trades when the VIX is likely to be falling. But what value to use for the look-back?
The results are depicted in the bar graph below where the net profit is on the y-axis and the look-back period is on the x-axis. The value 20 looked like a reasonable value to pick. The results of using 20 for the simple moving average for the VIX is below. Furthermore, like the regime filter we see an improvement in many of the performance indicators such as profit factor, average trade net profit and reduced drawdown.
Clearly, more work needs to be done. This is because we calculate Heikin-Ashi candles based partly on the average price and partly on the price of the preceding candle. The effect of this is to smooth the candles and gloss over minor moves in the opposite direction to the primary trend. The advantage of Heikin-Ashi candlesticks is that they make the trend clearer and help nervous traders which is all of us sometimes! However, it is important to remember that when the market does change direction Heikin-Ashi candles react more slowly.
Additionally, I only took trades that occurred during the European trading session. The European session includes the very end of the Asian session and also the US morning session. Finally, I wanted to take account of the summer slowdown in the financial markets an so excluded the months of July and August from my analysis. If you want to take your trading to the next level, the most important step is being able to test your strategies.
This is a spreadsheet that can be used to test all sorts of trading and investment strategies. You can find more about how to use a Tradinformed model here: How to Use a Tradinformed Backtest Model. Get a Tradinformed Backtest Model now and see how much better your trading can be.
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