Forex ekonomi

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Perusahaan manajemen investasi yang mana biasanya adalah merupakan pengelola banyak sekali akun atas nama nasabahnya seperti misalnya dana pensiun dan dana sumbangan yayasan yang bertransaksi di pasar valuta asing untuk kebutuhan mata uang asing guna melakukan transaksi pembelian saham di luar negeri. Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi: Dasar yang kuat adalah modal utama.

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Secara obyektif adalah untuk mendapatkan profit atau keuntungan dari posisi transaksi yang anda lakukan. Di Bursa valas dikenal istilah Lot dan Pip. Sedangkan nilai dolar di bursa valas berbeda dengan nilai dolar yang kita kenal di bank-bank.

Transaksi di valuta asing dapat dilakukan dengan cara dua arah dalam mengambil keuntungannya. Seseorang dapat membeli dahulu open buy , lalu ditutup dengan menjual sell ataupun sebaliknya, melakukan penjualan dahulu, lalu ditutup dengan membeli. Tidak seperti halnya pada bursa saham tempat para anggota bursa memiliki akses yang sama terhadap harga saham, pasar valuta asing terbagi atas beberapa tingkatan akses.

Pada akses tingkat tertinggi adalah pasar uang antar bank PUAB yang terdiri dari perusahaan-perusahaan bank investasi besar. Pada akses tingkat di bawahnya, rentang selisih antara harga jual dan harga beli menjadi besar tergantung dari volume transaksi. Apabila seorang trader [7] dapat menjamin terlaksananya transaksi valuta asing dalam jumlah besar maka mereka dapat meminta agar selisih nilai jual dan beli diperkecil yang disebut better spread selisih tipis antara harga jual dan beli.

Level akses terhadap pasar valuta asing adalah sangat ditentukan oleh ukuran transaksi valuta yang dilakukan. Dan setelah bank-bank peringkat atas tersebut maka peringkat selanjutnya adalah bank-bank investasi kecil lalu perusahaan-perusahaan multi nasional besar yang membutuhkan lindung nilai atas risiko transaksi serta membayar para pegawainya di berbagai negara , hedge fund besar [8] , dan juga para pedagang eceran yang menjadi penentu pasar valuta asing. Menurut Galati dan Melvin [9] , dana pensiun , perusahaan asuransi , reksadana dan investor institusi adalah merupakan pemain yang memiliki peran besar dalam pasar keuangan secara umum dan khususnya pasar valuta asing sejak dekade an.

Pasar uang antar bank PUAB memenuhi kebutuhan mayoritas dari perputaran uang di dunia usaha serta kebutuhan dari transaksi para spekulan setiap harinya yang dapat mencapai nilai triliunan dollar. Beberapa transaksi dilaksanakan untuk dan atas nama nasabahnya, tetapi sebagian besar adalah untuk kepentingan pemilik bank ataupun untuk kepentingan bank itu sendiri.

Hingga saat ini, pialang valuta asing adalah merupakan pelaku perputaran valuta dalam jumlah yang besar, memfasilitasi perdagangan PUAB dan mempertemukan penjual dan pembeli untuk "upah" fee yang kecil. Salah satu pemeran pasar valuta asing ini adalah adanya kebutuhan dari aktivitas perusahaan dalam melakukan pembayaran harga barang ataupun jasa dalam mata valuta asing. Kebutuhan mata valuta asing dari suatu perusahaan seringkali hanya kecil nilainya dibandingkan dengan kebutuhan dari bank dan spekulan dan perdagangan valuta asing yang dilakukannya seringkali hanya membawa dampak yang kecil sekali bagi nilai pasaran kurs mata uang.

Meskipun demikian arus perdagangan valuta asing dari perusahaan-perusahaan ini dalam jangka panjangnya merupakan faktor yang penting bagi arah nilai tukar suatu mata uang. Transaksi beberapa perusahaan multinasional dapat membawa akibat yang tidak terduga sewaktu mereka menutup posisi posisi jual ataupun beli yang amat besar sekali di mana transaksi ini tidak diketahui secara luas oleh para pemain pasar.

Bank sentral suatu negara memegang peran yang amat penting dalam pasar valuta asing. Bank sentral ini senantiasa berupaya untuk mengendalikan suplai uang, inflasi , dan ataupun suku bunga bahkan seringkali mereka memiliki suatu target baik resmi maupun tidak resmi terhadap nilai tukar mata uang negaranya. Seringkali bank sentral ini menggunakan cadangan devisanya untuk menstabilkan pasar.

Dengan ekspektasi pasar ataupun isu tentang intervensi yang dilakukan oleh bank sentral belaka telah cukup untuk menstabilkan kurs mata uang setempat, tetapi intervensi yang agresif dilakukan beberapa kali dalam setiap tahunnya pada suatu negara yang kurs mata uangnya bergejolak. Berbagai sumber dana yang ada di pasaran valuta asing apabila disatukan dapat dengan mudah "mempermainkan" bank sentral menarik atau menjual mata uang dalam jumlah yang sangat besar sekali sehingga bank sentral tidak mampu lagi melakukan intervensi di mana skenario ini nampak pada tahun - di mana mekanisme nilai tukar Eropa European Exchange Rate Mechanism - ERM [10] mengalami kejatuhan serta beberapa kali jatuhnya nilai tukar mata uang di Asia Tenggara.

Perusahaan manajemen investasi yang mana biasanya adalah merupakan pengelola banyak sekali akun atas nama nasabahnya seperti misalnya dana pensiun dan dana sumbangan yayasan yang bertransaksi di pasar valuta asing untuk kebutuhan mata uang asing guna melakukan transaksi pembelian saham di luar negeri.

Transaksi valuta asing bagi mereka adalah bukan merupakan tujuan investasi utamanya sehingga transaksi yang dilakukannya bukan dengan tujuan spekulasi ataupun dengan tujuan memperoleh keuntungan sebesar-besarnya. Hedge funds [11] [12] sebuah perusahaan investasi yang menjalankan kegiatan usaha transaksi spekulatif untuk mendapatkan keuntungan seperti misalnya George Soros [13] yang reputasinya naik disebabkan oleh kegiatan spekulasi mata uang yang dilakukannya secara agresif sejak tahun Ia mengelola dana triliunan US dollar dan masih bisa meminjam lagi triliunan US dollar dan oleh karenanya mampu membuat intervensi yang dilakukan oleh bank sentral suatu negara untuk menjaga nilai tukar mata uangnya menjadi tidak berdaya apabila fundamental ekonomi tergantung pada "belas kasihan" hedge funds.

Pialang valuta asing adalah perusahaan yang didirikan khusus untuk melakukan kegiatan jasa perantara bagi kepentingan nasabahnya di bidang pasar uang dengan memperoleh imbalan atas jasanya.

The construction industry is a major force to the United States economy, even without including non-construction businesses that are tied to building, such as finance, the furnishing industry, appliance industry and other manufacturing. Private Construction activity can be an effective indicator of business confidence.

The ISM Manufacturing Survey is valued for its timeliness, and indeed, during waning boom cycles analyst point out that ISM tends to be one of the biggest market moving economic releases.

These components reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions - two of the market's most significant health indicators. The headline figure is expressed as a diffusion index based on survey responses. For each category production, new orders etc. The ISM manufacturing indicator is the aggregate of the results for all categories. Currency supplied by the Bank of Japan.

The Monetary Base includes all banknotes and coins in circulation plus all currency held as deposits by the Bank of Japan. As an official measure of the Japanese money supply, the Monetary Base will show the immediate impacts of monetary policy actions and can give an indication into the future direction of inflation. An expansion in the monetary base is generally inflationary while a decline will likely have the opposite effect.

Measures changes in the selling prices of goods and services used by Euro-zone producers. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is an early indicator of inflation. A higher PPI, especially when combined with high figures for other measures of inflation, will make the European Central Bank more inclined to raise interest rates.

A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown. The Index headline is expressed as a month over month or annualized percentage change. The Euro-zone PPI excludes construction industry because it is vulnerable to seasonal price volatility that can distort index results.

Tracks monthly developments in the Australian services sector, condensing data into an overall boom or bust index. The composite index is based on the surveys for sales, new orders, employment, inventories and deliveries, compiled by American International Group. The AIG Performance of Service Index excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be volatile and seasonal, giving a clean picture of Australia's service sector that accounts for a majority of Aussie GDP.

The headline number uses a 50 baseline, where above 50 signifies growth, while a number below 50 shows a contraction in the services sector. Measures the monthly price change of New Zealand 's seventeen main commodity exports. Given that the exports act as the driving force of New Zealand 's economy, changes in their prices can affect GDP and exchange rates.

An increase in export prices may suggest a strengthening of the Dollar as foreigners pay relatively more for New Zealand 's exports. Conversely, falling export prices may indicate a decline in demand for New Zealand commodities; weakening the exchange rate.

The headline value is the percentage change in the index from the previous month. Because the figure measures price changes in commodity goods, it acts as an early indicator of price changes.

As such an early indicator the figure is useful in predicting future price direction. The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of recession - the figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole.

For this reason Business Approvals is one of eight components used to construct the Conference Board Leading Index, a widely used index to forecast Australia 's economic course.

A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month. The total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets.

The report acts as a gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. An increasing number of sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, which would fuel the Euro-zone economy.

However, higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures, which results in economic instability. The headline is the monthly percentage change in retail sales. Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed.

The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications. Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers.

Factor Orders is not a widely watched economic release. The Advance Release on Durable Goods Activity reported one week earlier tends grab more market attention, given that durable goods make up more than half of factory orders.

Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.

Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percent change from the previous month. The value of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years.

Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile. Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of U. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become skeptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship.

Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The data is highly volatile as well, some volatility is eliminated with the Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation figure, making it the more closely watched indicator.

The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. The Durable Goods Orders figure is also reported excluding transportation expenditures. Orders for items like civilian vehicles or aircrafts are fairly expensive and fluctuate idiosyncratically, distorting the Durable Goods Orders figure. Such goods are excluded to provide a better measure of durable goods orders. The average amount of pre-tax earnings per regular employee, including overtime pay and bonuses.

Though the report does not take into account all sources of household income accumulated wealth and capital gains from financial assets are omitted , Labor Cash Earnings accurately reflects the spending ability of domestic consumers, one of the driving forces behind economic growth.

Because growth in wages fuels higher consumption, rising Labor Cash Earnings generally lead to higher inflation. Measures the current economic activity based on a composite of indicators that track current business conditions in Japan. The headline number is derived by comparing the number of expanding indicators to the total number of indicators used.

Included in the index are; the expansion or contraction of industrial production, capacity utilization, retail and wholesale sales, power consumption, non-scheduled work hours, the job-offer rate and operating profits. Measures the total change in orders placed at domestic manufacturers. The figure gives a picture of the strength of demand for German industrial products. Factory orders are an early indicator of the overall level of spending in the economy, and spending drives economic growth.

Although higher German Factory Orders alone is not a strong enough factor to influence the value of Euro in a significant way, growth in orders can put upward pressure on the Euro if higher orders are due to greater demand aboard. German Factory Orders is a seasonally adjusted index. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change in the index. It is the key gauge for inflation in Switzerland. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Franc, where each Franc buys fewer goods and services.

The CPI calculates the change in the price of a predetermined basket of consumer goods and services. This basket represents the goods and services that an average household will purchase. The figure is compared to those of the previous month as well as the previous year in order to gauge changes to the costs of living on a month to month and year to year basis.

The headline number is the percentage change either from the previous month's value or the previous year's value. As the key indicator of inflation, a rising CPI may prompt the Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates in attempt to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Franc more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Franc. The percentage of people in the total - labor force without jobs but willing to work and are actively seeking employment.

Lower unemployment bodes well for the economy, translating into more income-earning workers and greater consumption.

While such increased expenditure accelerates economic growth, it can also heighten inflationary pressures. On the other hand, a higher unemployment rate tends to lead to lower consumer spending and a contracting economy. The Unemployment Rate is one of the most watch headline indicators of Canada 's labour market.

The net change in the number of people employed in Canada. Increases in employment are generally accompanied by higher consumption and expenditure levels. At the same time, higher employment, consumption and expenditures may lead to heightened inflationary pressures that encourage central banks to tighten monetary policy.

If the Bank of Canada were to raise interest rates, it would put upward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Because this is the main employment report in Canada it tends to have significant impact on the market.

The headline figure is the change in employment in thousands. Need to ask questions to an analyst? Join the Canadian employment change live broadcast. The difference between imports and exports of goods. Merchandise Trade differentiates itself from Trade Balance because it does not record intangibles like services, only reporting on physical goods.

Because exports of tangibles like oil, gold and manufacturing contribute to a large part of Canada 's GDP, trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates. Negative International Merchandise Trade deficit indicates that imports of goods are greater than exports. When exports are greater than imports, Canada experiences a trade surplus.





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